Analytical Appraisal of the 2024 Iran-Israel Conflict and Chances of Global Escalation

Abstract

This research aims to undertake a pragmatic analysis of assessing the probability of transforming a localized conflict between Israel and Iran escalating into World War III. The animosity between the two belligerents nations is deeply rooted that originated in the aftermath of the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The Iranian Republic, under Ayatollah clergy, overtly declared Israel an illegitimate state that occupied the Palestinian land and took a staunch position against the spread of Zionism in the region. Primarily, the reasons for the enmity rested upon the two nations’ pursuit of regional influence, ideological differences, proxies, great powers’ crisscrossed interests and the oil politics. Moreover, recent attacks on Israel occupied land by Hezbollah and Hamas with Iranian support has added fuel to hidden fire comprised of hatred, tension and proxy conflicts. Interestingly, despite of the fact that neither of the two nations are nuclear weapons state as per the NPT standards, the threat of use of nuclear weapons is being talked about. Besides that, the issue of nuclear proliferation adds a critical dimension to the rivalry, with Israel viewing Iran's nuclear ambitions as an existential threat. This complex and volatile relationship forms the backdrop for the study in hand, that shall critically examine the potential for a bilateral conflict to spiral into a regional conflict and then ultimately leading to a global war. The research shall make an endeavor to identify the reasons for the animosity, military capability to fight a protracted war, including their respective nuclear ambitions and delivery systems. It will also explore the cascading economic effects of a regional conflict, such as disruption of global oil supplies and the triggering of regional alliances especially the involvement of three big powers, the US, Russia and China.  

The research shall focus on the ultimate goal of developing a nuanced understanding of the strategic and tactical levels of conditions under which an Iran-Israel conflict could potentially escalate to a global scale and to propose strategies for mitigating the threat of a wider conflict involving nations across continents.